Early Warning Project
The Early Warning Project assesses the risk of mass atrocities in countries around the world.
Genocide and mass atrocities are devastating crimes in their scale and scope, in their enduring psychic scars for survivors, and in the long-term trauma they cause in societies where they occur. Despite past efforts to address systematic killing, and a body of law formed after the Holocaust to prevent and punish perpetrators, such crimes persist.
We use quantitative and qualitative methods to spotlight countries where mass atrocities have not begun, but where the risk for such violence is high.
We strive to improve this early warning system for mass atrocities by using a variety of publicly available data and forecasting methods.
Countries at Risk for Mass Killings 2023-24: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results
Explore Our Analysis
See countries ranked by risk, and learn about countries that are at high risk or experiencing an ongoing mass killing episode.
Learn how we generate our statistical risk assessments, and how you can use this data to make informed decisions about policies and practice.
See results of “wisdom of the crowds” aggregation of public opinion and comparison surveys and learn how you can help us assess risk in select countries.