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Comparison Surveys

End-of-Year Snapshots of Crowd-Forecasted Risk

Our comparison surveys (previously called “wiki surveys”) are an experimental way to produce a risk snapshot for the coming year, reflecting the collective opinions of a group of participants.

About Our Survey Methodology

The survey consists of just a single question: Which country is more likely to see a new episode of mass killing in [YEAR]? Respondents choose between two countries in a head-to-head comparison. They can answer the question for as many different pairs of countries as they like. Responses are aggregated into an overall rank ordering of countries. Our survey is open to the public for the month of December, and is actively promoted to experts, policymakers, NGOs, and scholars in international affairs. (Read this paper to learn more about the methodology)

Photo above: In this Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016 file photo, protesters chant slogans against the government during a march in Bishoftu, in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. AP Photo, File.


Resources on Comparison Surveys

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from the Early Warning Project and the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide