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A patrol and Anti-Balaka roadblock takedown with Rwandan African Union soldiers, in Bangui, CAR. USHMM/Michael Christopher Brown, 2014.

Methodology: Risk Factor Sources

Data We Use to Generate Our Statistical Risk Assessment

Our Statistical Risk Assessment relies on publicly available data that describe various characteristics of each country. Our statistical modeling only considers factors for which we have reliable measures covering nearly all countries of the world for many years. Because mass killing is rare, global data spanning decades are necessary to identify patterns.

We currently use 34 variables from 11 data sources. Below is a list of the data, and their sources, that go into our statistical model, grouped into five categories: basic country characteristics, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, governance, and socioeconomic characteristics. For more information on data transformations, download our Data Dictionary. All source data are available on GitHub.

Photo above: A patrol and Anti-Balaka roadblock takedown with Rwandan African Union soldiers, in Bangui, CAR. USHMM/Michael Christopher Brown, 2014.

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Basic Country Characteristics

Region

  • Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, South and Central Asia, Latin America
  • Source: US Department of State

Country Age

  • Years country has existed
  • Source: US Department of State

Population Size

  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

War and Conflict

Any Ongoing Mass Killing

  • Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)

Any Mass Killing Ever

  • Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)

Battle-Related Deaths

Any Coup Attempts In Past Five Years

  • Source: Center for Systemic Peace's Coup d'Etat and Powell & Thyne Coup d'Etat Dataset

Human Rights and Civil Liberties

State party to the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights

Freedom of Religion

Political Killing

Freedom of Domestic Movement (Men/Women)

  • Are all men/women able to move freely, in daytime and nighttime, in public thoroughfares, across regions within a country, and to establish permanent residency where they wish?
  • Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.11, v2xcl_dmove)

Freedom of Discussion

  • Are citizens able to openly discuss political issues in private homes and in public spaces?
  • Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.14, v2xcl_disc)

Social Group Equality

  • Do all social groups, as distinguished by language, ethnicity, religion, race, region, or caste, enjoy the same level of civil liberties, or are some groups generally in a more favorable position?
  • Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.25, v2clacjust)

Evenness of Civil Liberties

Civil Society Repression


Governance

Regime Type

  • Autocracy, Anocracy, or Democracy
  • Center for Systemic Peace, Polity IV Dataset, transformed by the Early Warning Project into categories defined by Fearon & Laitin

Regime Duration (log)

  • Years the current regime has been in power
  • Source: Center for Systemic Peace, Polity IV Dataset

Minority Control

  • Does a minority control political rule?
  • Source: Political Instability Task Force

Candidate Restriction

Party Ban

Judicial Reform

  • Were the judiciary‚Äôs formal powers altered this year in ways that affect its ability to control the arbitrary use of state authority?
  • Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (9.2 v2jureform)

Power Distributed by Social Group


Socioeconomic

Infant Mortality Rate

  • Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Division

Annual Percentage Change in GDP Per Capita

  • Source: World Development Indicators & International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Report

Ethnic Fractionalization

  • Measures ethnic heterogeneity
  • Source: Ethnic Fractionalization Data from Alesina et al.

Trade Openness

  • Trade as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

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