Methodology: Risk Factor Sources

Basic Country Characteristics

Region

• Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, South and Central Asia, Latin America
• Source: US Department of State

Country Age

• Years country has existed
• Source: US Department of State

Population Size

• Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

---

War and Conflict

Any Ongoing Mass Killing

• Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)

Any Mass Killing Ever

• Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)

Battle-Related Deaths

• Total battle-related deaths in the country/year
• Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Any Coup Attempts In Past Five Years

• Source: Center for Systemic Peace's Coup d'Etat and Powell & Thyne Coup d'Etat Dataset

---

Human Rights and Civil Liberties

State party to the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights

• Source: Ulfelder International Organizations and Treaty Regimes; updated by the Early Warning Project

Freedom of Religion

• Is there freedom of religion?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.3, v2clrelig )

Political Killing

• Is there freedom from political killings?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.5, v2clkill)

Freedom of Domestic Movement (Men/Women)

• Are all men/women able to move freely, in daytime and nighttime, in public thoroughfares, across regions within a country, and to establish permanent residency where they wish?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.11, v2xcl_dmove)

Freedom of Discussion

• Are citizens able to openly discuss political issues in private homes and in public spaces?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.14, v2xcl_disc)

Social Group Equality

• Do all social groups, as distinguished by language, ethnicity, religion, race, region, or caste, enjoy the same level of civil liberties, or are some groups generally in a more favorable position?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.25, v2clacjust)

Evenness of Civil Liberties

• Does government respect for civil liberties vary across different areas of the country?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.27, v2clrgunev)

Civil Society Repression

• Does the government attempt to repress civil society organizations (CSOs)?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (12.3, v2csreprss)

---

Governance

Regime Type

• Autocracy, Anocracy, or Democracy
• Center for Systemic Peace, Polity IV Dataset, transformed by the Early Warning Project into categories defined by Fearon & Laitin

Regime Duration (log)

• Years the current regime has been in power
• Source: Center for Systemic Peace, Polity IV Dataset

Minority Control

• Does a minority control political rule?
• Source: Political Instability Task Force

Candidate Restriction

• Are political candidates restricted by ethnicity, race, religion, or language?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (3.3 v2elrstrct)

Party Ban

• Are any parties banned?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (4.2 v2psparban)

Judicial Reform

• Were the judiciary’s formal powers altered this year in ways that affect its ability to control the arbitrary use of state authority?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (9.2 v2jureform)

Power Distributed by Social Group

• Is political power distributed according to social groups?
• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (14.3 v2pepwrsoc)

---

Socioeconomic

Infant Mortality Rate

• Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Division

Annual Percentage Change in GDP Per Capita

• Source: World Development Indicators & International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Report

Ethnic Fractionalization

• Measures ethnic heterogeneity
• Source: Ethnic Fractionalization Data from Alesina et al.

Trade Openness

• Trade as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators