Methodology: Risk Factor Sources
Data We Use to Generate Our Statistical Risk Assessment
Our Statistical Risk Assessment relies on publicly available data that describe various characteristics of each country. Our statistical modeling only considers factors for which we have reliable measures covering nearly all countries of the world for many years. Because mass killing is rare, global data spanning decades are necessary to identify patterns.
We currently use 34 variables from 11 data sources. Below is a list of the data, and their sources, that go into our statistical model, grouped into five categories: basic country characteristics, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, governance, and socioeconomic characteristics. For more information on data transformations, download our Data Dictionary. All source data are available on GitHub.
Photo above: A patrol and Anti-Balaka roadblock takedown with Rwandan African Union soldiers, in Bangui, CAR. USHMM/Michael Christopher Brown, 2014.
Basic Country Characteristics
Region
- Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, South and Central Asia, Latin America
- Source: US Department of State
Country Age
- Years country has existed
- Source: US Department of State
Population Size
- Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
War and Conflict
Any Ongoing Mass Killing
- Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)
Any Mass Killing Ever
- Source: Early Warning Project (note that in some cases the Early Warning Project maintains its own datasets)
Battle-Related Deaths
- Total battle-related deaths in the country/year
- Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
Any Coup Attempts In Past Five Years
- Source: Powell & Thyne Coup d'Etat Dataset
Human Rights and Civil Liberties
State party to the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
- Source: Ulfelder International Organizations and Treaty Regimes; updated by the Early Warning Project
Freedom of Religion
- Is there freedom of religion?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.3, v2clrelig )
Political Killing
- Is there freedom from political killings?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.5, v2clkill)
Freedom of Domestic Movement (Men/Women)
- Are all men/women able to move freely, in daytime and nighttime, in public thoroughfares, across regions within a country, and to establish permanent residency where they wish?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.11, v2xcl_dmove)
Freedom of Discussion
- Are citizens able to openly discuss political issues in private homes and in public spaces?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.14, v2xcl_disc)
Social Group Equality
- Do all social groups, as distinguished by language, ethnicity, religion, race, region, or caste, enjoy the same level of civil liberties, or are some groups generally in a more favorable position?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.25, v2clacjust)
Evenness of Civil Liberties
- Does government respect for civil liberties vary across different areas of the country?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (10.27, v2clrgunev)
Civil Society Repression
- Does the government attempt to repress civil society organizations (CSOs)?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (12.3, v2csreprss)
Governance
Minority Control
- Does a minority control political rule?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (14.3 v2pepwrsoc)
Candidate Restriction
- Are political candidates restricted by ethnicity, race, religion, or language?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (3.3 v2elrstrct)
Party Ban
- Are any parties banned?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (4.2 v2psparban)
Judicial Reform
- Were the judiciary’s formal powers altered this year in ways that affect its ability to control the arbitrary use of state authority?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (9.2 v2jureform)
Power Distributed by Social Group
- Is political power distributed according to social groups?
- Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (14.3 v2pepwrsoc)
Socioeconomic
Infant Mortality Rate
- World Bank, World Development Indicators
Annual Percentage Change in GDP Per Capita
- Source: World Development Indicators & International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Report
Ethnic Fractionalization
- Measures ethnic heterogeneity
- Source: Ethnic Fractionalization Data from Alesina et al.
Trade Openness
- Trade as percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators