In 2017, we changed our Statistical Risk Assessment methodology. The new model increases the forecasting window to two years, includes both state- and nonstate-led mass killing, and revises some of the data inputs to benefit from newly available sources.
As a result of this change, risk and rank from the assessments produced 2014 through 2016 should not be compared to results from 2017 onward.
Key Risk Factors
All Risk Factors
Our statistical model includes the following variables, sourced from publicly available data on a variety of country characteristics. See more details in our data dictionary (PDF)
from the Early Warning Project and the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide