Country - Somalia | Early Warning Project

Region

Risk and Ranking

Ranking

Risk and Ranking Over Time

Results from 2017 Forward

Beginning in 2017, we implemented a new statistical model. The new model increases the forecasting window to two years, includes both state- and nonstate-led mass killing, and revises some of the data inputs to benefit from newly available sources.

For these reasons, risk and rank statistics from 2014-2016 should not be compared to results from 2017 forward.

	Ranking	% Risk

2014-16 Results

From 2014-16, we used three models representing different ideas about the origins of mass atrocities to create the Statistical Risk Assessment. Those assessments were an average of forecasts from those three models.

	Ranking	% Risk

Risk Factors

Key Risk Factors

Resources:

All Risk Factors

Our statistical model includes the following variables, sourced from publicly available data on a variety of country characteristics. See more details in our data dictionary (PDF)

Data Files (CSV)

Data Files (R)

Data Dictionary (PDF)

Reports (PDF)

Region

Risk and Ranking

Results from 2017 Forward

2014-16 Results

Risk Factors

Key Risk Factors

All Risk Factors

Receive Updates

CSV Files

R Files

PDFs of Reports

Share

Region

Risk and Ranking

Results from 2017 Forward

2014-16 Results

Risk Factors

Key Risk Factors

All Risk Factors

Receive Updates

CSV Files

R Files

PDFs of Reports